Let us speculate the damage that can be caused by one nuclear attack from North Korea. Michael Yoo and Dexter Ingram published a Japanese book,”War Simulation”, calculating what would happen if North Korea executed just one nuclear attack on Japan.

If “ground zero” were the National Diet Building in Tokyo, it would kill approximately 420,000 people with a total of around 810,000 victims. If the attack hit Umeda in Osaka it would kill around 480,000 with a total of around 880,000 victims.

In the book, they said, “90% of everything within a 2.5 km radius around ‘ground zero’ will be wiped out after a brief flare like a camera flash”. Tokyo Tower would be bent and deformed.

Information networks such as television lines will be destroyed, significantly reducing the circulation of information around the country. Hospitals will be overcrowded from the huge number of victims, and not everyone will get sufficient treatment. Those hundreds of thousands who evacuated to the subway will be isolated, and rescuing them would become difficult.

The chaos would be incomparable to any other, even in a country that has experienced many natural disasters.

Missile Defense Full of Holes

Japan’s missile shield is in miserable shape.

It is comprised of two layers: (1) missiles launched from the Aegis-class destroyers of the Maritime Self-Defense Force and (2) the Air Self-Defense Force’s MIM-104 Patriot PAC3 missile system. Japan has currently deployed 6 Aegis-class destroyers and 34 Patriots spread across 16 bases.

But still Japan’s missile defense system is full of holes. The Patriot does not cover the full area of Japan, with many missing spots including Osaka, which has a population of 8.86 million. Even in Tokyo Metropolis, where the system is active, the target range is even smaller than the outline of the Yamanote train-line. A former Defense Force authority expressed doubts as to whether the system could protect the Imperial Palace if North Korea launched a simultaneous missile attack.

Japan does have the option of requesting the U.S. Navy stationed in Kanagawa prefecture to strike down incoming missiles, but this is to prove that Japan doesn’t actually have sufficient self-defense power. There is no single place that Japan can confidently protect.

150,000 Refugees to Japan

The risks involved in a Korean Peninsula emergency are not confined to large cities. Rural cities would experience a huge flood of North Korean refugees. South Korea experts estimate refugees to number between 2-4 million, and around 100-150,000 of them would swarm into Nagasaki, Fukuoka and Yamaguchi prefectures.

“We are doing the best we can to prepare for any disaster,” Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga boasted in a press conference in April.

However, when we questioned the Tsushima city, Nagasaki, on their refugee strategy, they said, “we cannot manage if they come in tens of thousands”. An appalling response considering it is the place where refugees are most likely to arrive first. They have thought of making the refugees wait for some time on boats, but have “not yet considered” how to respond after they step on dry land.

A flood of refugees will increase the risk of epidemics, riots and North Korean spies. The insufficient strategies proposed by the rural communities calls into doubt the government official’s sparkling optimism.

Autonomous communities should cooperate with the Self-Defense Force in training and research on suspicious boats and refugees. There is also a need to increase workers at the immigration bureau, and organize a system that can immediately call for extra-prefectural police and SDF assistance.

How to Reduce Nuclear Attack Damage

Then comes the question of how to reduce the damage caused by nuclear attacks.

Here is the best solution:

1. Erect nuclear shelters at large public buildings and event halls
2. Construct a communication network that can withstand the powerful electromagnetic waves that comes from a nuclear explosion, to be able to relay accurate information throughout the country
3. Conduct evacuation drills for possible nuclear and missile attacks to draw public attention
4. Transfer railway management rights to the SDF and create a system that can evacuate the people who take shelter at train stations to the outskirts
5. Make radiation protective facilities in hospitals and prepare for treatment
   Japan is the only atom-bombed country in the world, and yet they are far too underprepared for nuclear attack. Change must commence immediately.

Nuclear Arms Equipment Is Vital

But the most important thing is to create a system that can prevent North Korea’s attacks.

First, Japan must implement a cruise missile that can destroy enemy bases from very far off.

Japanese sociologist Ryo Kitamura says that if Japan buys 800 cruise missiles for around 100 billion JPY from the U.S. it will serve to deter North Korea and China. The effect will be increased if they can be launched from submarines, which makes it harder for them to be detected.

We cannot ignore the possibility that the U.S. will choose not to protect Japan, being too occupied with its own defense. If this happens, the only thing that can stop North Korea and China is “an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth” and “nuclear weapons for nuclear weapons”.

Sharing nuclear weapons with the U.S. is another possible option; it will effectively mean the same thing. Nonetheless it will still mean the U.S. determines Japan’s safety, so equipping nuclear weapons is a path Japan must follow to attain independence.

The Japanese government must obtain the power to independently face North Korea. All of this to stop Japan from once more becoming a battlefield.