2015.09.08

Recently, CNN presented an interview with a North Korean defector who fled into South Korea. In the interview, made anonymous for fear of assassination, the defector declared that the North Korean regime would collapse within the next 10 years. The grounds for this assertion lie in what the defector saw firsthand in the opinions held by the upper echelons of North Korean society and their political class.

The Purge Draws Suspicion

According to the defector, the wave of purges that have gripped the nation has fueled suspicion towards North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The defector reported that especially after the purging of former vice-chairman of the National Defence Commission and Kim’s uncle Jang Sung-taek, unrest can be observed amongst the ruling class of the government.

It seems that Kim Jong-un thinks he is maintaining the administration by purging his political opponents and controlling the citizens, but he is mistaken. There are some amongst the government authorities who are afraid that perhaps they will be the next victims. The citizens are also beginning to lose their trust in a leader who would go to such lengths of killing one’s own uncle. All of this points to the possibility of Kim Jong-un being assassinated.

After seeing the purging of Jang Sung-taek, the defector thought it wise to escape from what he called his “living hell”, and consequently chose to defect. It is evident that the Kim regime is unstable.

The Powder Keg of East Asia

If the Kim regime is indeed unstable, it will have a significant impact on the future of East Asia. If North Korea is driven into a corner both politically and economically, there is a possibility that China may take advantage of their plight while providing political and economic support.

In Spiritual Messages from the Crimson Emperor Stalin by Ryuho Okawa, founder of Happy Science, the spirit of Stalin analyzed that “China’s move of creating a manmade island in the South China Sea is a diversion, and their real aim is to control Japan. In addition he said that China would not directly attack Japan, but will use North Korea as a proxy. While North Korea possesses nuclear weapons, an impoverished economy may force North Korea to accept Chinese aid in return for they’ll do whatever China says.”

The standoff between North and South Korea is becoming ever more complex as other East Asian territorial disputes have come into play. It can even be dubbed the ‘Gunpowder of East Asia’.

Japanese Preparations Fall Behind the International Reality

If a conflict were to erupt in the Korean Peninsula, Japan will be expected to act. In such a situation, national defense, support of U.S. forces, rescue of Japanese nationals, responding to refugees, securing the Sea Lanes, and being alert for Chinese attempts to resolve the East China Sea island dispute through the use of force in the midst of the chaos unfolding in the Korean Peninsula.

In Japan, the debate over its security legislation has reached a boiling point, but the situation in East Asia will not wait to accommodate Japan’s slow pace in amending its legal system. There is a need for Japan to press forward with reforms in the legal system, national defense, and foreign relations so that they can successfully deal with any possible situation.