Key points in this article:

• Kim’s weapons test and talks with Putin are proof that the sanctions are taking effect
• The military option is still viable
• Japan should join the U.S. and take part in democratizing the Korean Peninsula

 
On the 18th of April, Kim supervised a test for their “new tactical guided weapon,” the government-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported. Details about the new weapon remain unknown, but analysts suggest that it was not a long-range missile but rather a short-range guided missile.

North Korea has chosen to display their growing military power while also avoiding an ICBM test, for which they would have had the U.S. at their heels.

Also on the 8th, the KCNA blamed Secretary of State Mike Pompeo for the breakdown of Trump-Kim talks at Hanoi, Vietnam, demanding him to step down. The KCNA cryptically demanded that the U.S. must remove the “root cause” that compelled North Korea to initiate their nuclear program, and threatened that the failure to do so could result in situations that “no one can predict.”

Sanctions Are Working, And Kim Wants Attention

Why has North Korea initiated a weapons test and demanded Pompeo’s step-down? That’s because the sanctions implemented in the February Trump-Kim Summit are taking effect.

The Hanoi Summit exposed that the sanctions were really working, and since those sanctions still continue, North Korea has been reduced to using their foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the economy.

Specialists surmise that the reserves could run dry next year. Accordingly North Korea has lowered the income threshold for permits to work overseas from $300,000 down to between $10,000 and $20,000. The U.S. dollars that these people pay to the government is their last lifeline.

They were expecting South Korean President Moon Jae-in to mediate negotiations with Trump, but that didn’t go as planned. So now Kim has approached Russia. Without help from Russia, they cannot survive Trump’s siege. Hence the Putin-Kim meeting on the 24th.

North Korea’s Naïve U.S. Strategy

On the 12th, Kim gave a policy speech at the Supreme People’s Assembly. He blamed “America’s unrealistic proposals” for the negotiation breakdown at Hanoi, and announced that he will “wait patiently until the end of next year for the U.S. to make a resolution.”

But why the end of next year?

On 28th February right after the Hanoi summit, Master Ryuho Okawa – founder and CEO of Happy Science – recorded the spiritual messages of Kim’s guardian spirit who exposed his true thoughts:

“There’s no way we would denuclearize. Are you stupid? Why would be waste something we’ve already made?”

“If we can prolong negotiations throughout this year, then after that it’s over. Trump will no longer be president.”

“In one year’s time, Trump will go back to being an ordinary citizen; but we won’t. We maintain a dynasty as long as we live.”

Kim naively thinks that Trump’s presidency will end after one term. In other words, he expects that Trump will no longer be president after next year, which means that as long as he survives this year, he will win the battle.

The U.S. Debates The Military Option

Trump tweeted after his second summit with Kim that “a third Summit would be good in that we fully understand where we each stand.”

But a few days later, National Security Advisor John R. Bolton told Bloomberg News that for a third summit to take place, the U.S. needs to see “a real indication from North Korea that they’ve made the strategic decision to give up nuclear weapons.”

Despite their differences, it is wrong to think that Trump is a dreamer and Bolton is a hardliner. Trump has commented many times that the North Korea problem came from his predecessors’ neglect of the situation, and that he will be the one to close the curtains on it. His anger can also be felt by the fact that he cancelled the scheduled luncheon meeting at Hanoi.

Specialists and Senators are also clear about their stance.

“The only way [Kim will] change his behaviour: if he believes Donald Trump would use military force to destroy his regime.” (Sen. Lindsey Graham)

“[Kim} does not want the kind of opening that China or Vietnam did, where foreigners wander around the countryside talking about democracy.” (Michael J. Green, CSIS)

“if Kim cannot be persuaded to embark on a comprehensive deal for peace and denuclearization . . . there is no reasonable alternative to deterring Kim from using his weapons of mass destruction, either directly or as a form of blackmail.” (Patrick M. Cronin, Hudson Institute)

What is important is that the U.S. has started to consider the military option against North Korea.
In March, Peter V. Pry, the Executive Director of a Congressional Advisory Board, dedicated to protecting the U.S. from electromagnetic pulse and cyber attacks, published an article “Military option for denuclearizing North Korea” in The Washington Times.
In it, he introduced a variety of military options: destroying satellites and North Korean missiles, nuclear-equipped bombers, submarines, and using ballistic missiles to destroy Sohae Satellite Launching Station, Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center, and other facilities using enriched uranium. He proposed the need to engage in military measures that will stop North Korea’s escalation.
He warned that there would be millions of victims if North Korea keeps their nukes, and also that Iran will also develop and use nuclear weapons in the near future.
A poll in February revealed that around 50% of the people felt North Korea to be a major security threat that should be contained through military measures.

Trump Aims For North Korean Democratization

Kim believes that time will prove him the greatest emperor of North Korea, but his miscalculations of Trump could make him the last emperor.

In the spiritual message recorded right after the Hanoi summit, Trump’s guardian spirit said, “It’s not a negotiation unless it makes his blood run cold,” and that he had long considered the military option.

He is taking into account China’s influences.

“If it appears that even North Korea can manipulate the U.S., then China will assume that we would be powerless when they try to annex Taiwan.”

Seiji Kawata, who teaches security studies at Happy Science University, explains the potential effects of Trump’s military option.

The U.S. will calculate potential retaliation, and keep everything within the bounds of their defensive power. The stagnant negotiations will flow smoothly again if the U.S. can clearly display to North Korea, China and Russia, their intention to achieve denuclearization at all costs.

So basically, the U.S. will make a concentrated but effective strike. Rather than achieving denuclearization through the strike, it would have the purpose of truly frightening North Korea so they will finally sit still at the table for denuclearization negotiations. Trump’s concentrated strike is unavoidable unless North Korea shows a clear roadmap to denuclearization.

On top of that, Trump’s ultimate goal does not stop at denuclearization. Trump’s guardian spirit commented, “I cannot forgive the existence of a Communist despotism . . . they will not survive unless they embrace liberty and capitalism. I want North Korea to become a real-world example of this to make it a lesson for China.”

If North Korea takes a step towards democracy, it will unquestionably influence China. Activist Kang Chol-hwan was imprisoned in North Korea’s concentration camp for 10 years between the age of 9 and 19 when he moved back into North Korea with his family. He told the Liberty Magazine

China’s Communist one-party rule is constantly politically influenced by North Korea, so they’re very sensitive to changes in the North’s Regime. Changes in North Korea will greatly influence China.

Underground forces are rapidly preparing the downfall of the Kim Regime. Free Joseon, a group that has taken Kim Han-sol (son of the late Kim Jong-nam) into custody, announced in March the founding of a provisional government.

Japan should stay in sync with the U.S. and feel some responsibility towards the democratization of the Korean Peninsula after the fall of the Kim Empire.

(Hanako Cho)