Forecast for the World in 2012
Thorough analysis of the world in 2012 from international politics to Mayan prophecies

Maintain Anti-China Coalition Hillary Clinton initiates

- Given the U.S defense budget cuts, the U.S coalition with Japan, South Korea and Australia is essential to maintain regional stability.

The coalition might collapse again depending on the outcome of the South Korean presidential election. That makes me worry.

- What should Japan do under present circumstance?

Secretary of State Clinton framed the coalition of the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Australia and India. My recommendation is to maintain this coalition.

Clinton clearly meant to set-up the anti-China Coalition at APEC summit in November 2010. Clinton came via Guam through Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, New Zealand and Australia to Japan. On her departure, she made a long speech, which could be interpreted as her resolution to initiate the anti-China Coalition.

On the other hand, Obama came to Japan via India, Indonesia and South Korea. However, he just mentioned that he would try to increase employment by marketing American products to Asian countries in his contribution to The New York Times. He tried to blur Clinton’s anti-China coalition initiative. Obama may have no intention to promote this initiative.

- What is the essential to Japanese foreign and security policy?

It all comes down to authorization of the use of the right to collective self-defense.Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is reliable in his way of thinking. He considers the Japan-U.S. Alliance as fundamental to national strategy and approves the use of the right to collective self-defense.

At moment, his first priority is to maintain harmony within the party by balancing the power of intraparty factions. Although he appointed Seiji Maehara as chairman of the party’s Policy Research Council and has gathered reliable people in his office, it is doubtful that he can manage to implement policies. Since each minister has own power and authority, if ministers ignore his instructions, nothing will move.

The Prime Minister will not dissolve the House of Representatives for a general election in order to maintain the interparty harmony and power, since most of the representatives of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) would not be re-elected. Perhaps he may continue until the term expires. If he has two years, he might be able to attain some of his policies such as authorization of the use of the right to collective self-defense. It is regrettable for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) but that might happen.

 

Summary of essentials to Japanese foreign and security policy by Mr. Okazaki

 

  • Maintain the Japan-U.S. Alliance as fundamental to national strategy
  • Maintain the coalition of Japan, the U.S., South Korea, Australia and India
  • Authorize the use of the right to collective self-defense.
Pages: 1 2 3 4
 
Forecast for the World in 2012
Copyright © IRH Press Co.Ltd. All Right Reserved.